Friday, May 7, 2010

History being made

This is by far the most interesting election in Britain since I was in shortpants.

What can we make of it so far?

First, the Conservatives have clearly won the most votes and seats, but are clearly short of a majority, and probably won't be able to govern effectively without a good deal of messing around.
Second, Cleggmania was a mirage (23%, seats lost).
Third, Labour did actually pretty well considering (29% ish, over 250 seats).

What will happen now?
God knows. The Tories will have to try and govern alone, it will be difficult, and a number of scenarios are possible. New elections pretty soon - which would be a very unpopular outcome among voters, and therefore unlikely; some kind of coalition with the nationalists, or maybe even the Lib Dems (although I'm not sure what's in it for them); or even, a Lib-Lab pact to overturn the Tories if things go wrong (the arithmetic just about allows it, especially if you throw in nationalist forces).

And all this with the most brutal fiscal squeeze for decades due shortly, and the markets collapsing around us. Glad I can sit and snipe from the sidelines rather than having to sort out this mess.