Thursday, July 21, 2011

Cameron resigns

OK, he hasn't. In fact, he probably won't resign over the phone-hacking affair. The reason for this is that although it is entirely implausible that he behaved properly in his hiring of Andy Coulson and his broader relationship with New International, it is probably impossible to prove that he lied to the House or breached the ministerial code in any flagrant way. The flood of resignations at NI and the Met has come close to engulfing him, but his sheer bravado in the Commons yesterday saw him through.

So the summer recess saves his bacon for the moment. However, he is rapidly using up his stock of political capital over this. Other clouds loom on the horizon, notably the stagnant economy and the risk of major financial turbulence originating in the Eurozone. Suddenly, the odds are this government may struggle to see out its five-year term.